Main Conference 20-21 Feb

Instructions for oral presentations : Instructions for preparation of posters


Monday, 20 Feb 2017 – Day 1 (Main Conference)
Venue: Global Learning Room (GLR), Active Learning Room, Seminar Room 2, Seminar Room 3 & Ngee Ann Kongsi (NAK) Auditorium, Education Resource Centre (Level 2)
Break: Open Courtyard (Level 1)
MC: Jessica Nagulendran

Time Detail Speakers Venue
8-9am Registration Open Courtyard (level 1)
9-9.10am Welcome Remarks by Organising Chair John Richardson Ngee Ann Kongsi Auditorium (level 2)
9.10-9.20am Opening Remarks by Master, RC4 Lakshminarayanan Samavedham NAK Auditorium (level 2)
9.20-9.30am Address by Provost and Award Presentation for Student Colloquium GOH – Provost Prof Tan Eng Chye NAK Auditorium (level 2)
9.30-10.30am Plenary Session 1 (45 mins + 15 min Q&A)
Title: Toward a Sustainable Society – Learning from Japan’s Edo Period and Contributing from Asia to the World
Junko Edahiro
(Chair: John Ansah)
NAK Auditorium (level 2)
10.30-10.45am Break Open Courtyard (level 1)
10.45-11.45am Plenary Session 2
Title: The Asia Pacific Region is the Growing Edge of the System Dynamics Society
David Andersen, Robert Eberlein & Ignacio Martinez-Moyano
(Chair: Jenson Goh)
NAK Auditorium (level 2)
11.45-1.30pm Lunch/ Poster Exhibition Open Courtyard (level 1)
12-1.00pm Planning the Third Asia-Pacific Region System Dynamics Society Conference. Seminar Room 2 (level 2)
1.30-3.00pm Concurrent Session 1

  • Methodology I (GLR)
  • Economics (ALR)
  • Strategy (SR2)
  • Performance and Cost in Health (SR3)
Breakout rooms (level 2)

  • GLR, ALR, SR2, SR3
3-3.30pm Break Open Courtyard (level 1)
3.30-5pm Special Topics in System Dynamics 1 NAK Auditorium (level 2)
5.20-6pm Some places to visit in Singapore Elizabeth Ong Seminar Room 2 (level 2)

Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017 – Day 2 (Main Conference)

Time Detail Speakers Venue
9-10.00am Plenary Session 3
Title: Large Scale Systems of Singapore
Lui Pao Chuen
(Chair: John Richardson)
NAK Auditorium (level 2)
10.00-10.15am Break Open Courtyard (level 1)
10.15-11.15am Plenary Session 4
Title: Is Humanity Becoming More or Less Reasonable?
Kishore Mahbubani, Dean LKYSPP
(Chair: John Richardson)
NAK Auditorium (level 2)
11.15-12noon A discussion on future System Dynamics initiatives in the Asia-Pacific region including plans for the 60th anniversary of the System Dynamics Society and its 35th International Conference

Concluding remarks for plenary sessions

Roberta Spencer and David Andersen



Lakshminarayanan Samavedham

NAK Auditorium (level 2)
12-1.30pm Lunch/Poster Exhibition Open Courtyard (level 1)
1.30-3.00pm Concurrent Session 2

  • Methodology II (GLR)
  • Screening and Prevention in Health (ALR)
  • Health in Singapore (SR2)
  • Resources and the Environment (SR3)
  • Business Operations and Public Policy (NAK Auditorium)
Breakout rooms (level 2)

  • GLR, ALR, SR2, SR3, NAK Auditorium
3-3.30pm Break Open Courtyard (level 1)
3.30-5pm Special Topics in System Dynamics 2 NAK Auditorium (level 2)
7pm Conference Dinner NUS Guild House


Keynote Speakers – Monday, 20 Feb 2017, Day 1 (Main Conference)

Plenary Session 1
Venue: NAK Auditorium
Time: 9.30-10.30am
Chair: John Ansah

[toggle title=’Junko Edahiro: Toward a Sustainable Society – Learning from Japans Edo Period and Contributing from Asia to the World’]
We humans are now facing an unprecedented challenge. The sustainability of the very base of our existence is being shaken profoundly. Technological solutions are important but not enough. Rather, we need to review our own values and ways of living our lives. During the Edo Period (1603-1867), we had in Japan what we now call “a steady-state economy” and “a sustainable society.” Moreover, Japan is no exception. Bhutan’s concept of “Gross National Happiness” and Thailand’s “Sufficiency Economy” are just two examples of the many key concepts and initiatives in Asia which could give us insight and inspiration on how to cope with the challenges we face. Aiming at a truly sustainable society, I’d like to explore what we can relearn from Asia and what we can contribute to the world from Asia.


Plenary Session 2
Venue: NAK Auditorium

Time: 10.45-11.45am
Chair: Jenson Goh

[toggle title=’David Andersen, Robert Eberlein & Ignacio Martinez-Moyano: The Asia Pacific Region is the Growing Edge of the System Dynamics Society’]
Click here for session slides.

Concurrent Session 1 – Monday, 20 Feb 2017, Day 1 (Main Conference)
Time: 1.30-3pm

Parallel: Methodology I
Venue: Global Learning Room (GLR)
Chair: Matthew Pepper

[toggle title=’1046: Developing Causal Loop Diagrams with Inexperienced Participants (Presented by: Emily Ryan)’]
Authors: Emily Ryan, Matthew Pepper, Albert Aneiros, Paul Cooper

Experienced system dynamicists are well aware of the benefits of conceptualising complex cause and effect relationships and feedback loops using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs). To ensure model completeness, it is important to justify the method as fit for the purposes of the study. Although a small number of methods exist to construct CLDs from qualitative data obtained from participants with little experience in system dynamics, little processual guidance exists to inform method selection. Guidance in conducting these studies is of particular importance when researchers aim to draw inference by comparing theory-driven and practitioner data-driven CLDs. As a proof of concept, we present a case study including a theoretically derived CLD and a CLD developed in various group model building sessions aimed at understanding causal relationships and necessary factors for supply chain cluster formation. Variety in CLD construction methods allowed for the exploration of methodological concepts such as iteration and convergence of CLDs as well as aggregation of multiple CLDs. A critical commentary is presented on the various methods aimed at informing method selection.

[toggle title=’1044: An integrated participatory modelling framework for climate change adaptation planning (Presented by: Oz Sahin)’]
Authors: Mehdi Hafezi, Emiliya Suprun, Oz Sahin, Rodney Stewart, Brendan Mackey

This paper presents an integrated framework for climate change adaptation (CCA) planning by employing a stepwise process which consists of different analysis and modelling approaches. The key for success in the modelling phase is the integration of multidisciplinary assessments by coupling two approaches; Bayesian Networks (BNs) and System Dynamics (SD) in the context of climate change. Both BNs and SD have their particular benefits and limitations, and integrating these modelling tools can maximise their respective advantages by covering the other’s limitations. Specifically, SD is an apt approach to understand the nonlinear behaviour of complex systems, but not successful and effective in the treatment of uncertainty. Similarly, BNs are known as probabilistic and participatory tools that are capable of dealing with both quantitative and qualitative data, but conversely are unable to capture feedbacks within a dynamic system. Moreover, CCA has a number of dimensions and requirements that need to be addressed in the process of vulnerability assessment and planning. Adaptation plans are characteristically developed for systems that are uncertain, complex, and temporal, and which are changing over time. Additionally, the inclusion of stakeholder engagement and multidisciplinary expertise at relevant CCA planning stages is an essential requirement. Thus, the application of BN-SD coupling within a holistic framework is an effective approach leading to a successful CCA planning

[toggle title=’1074: Developing a Numerical Platform for Simulation-Based Exploration of Behavioral Economic Dynamics (Presented by: David Andersen)’]
Authors: Stephen Weinberg, Babak Bahaddin, David Andersen, Luis Luna-Reyes

Behavioral Economics has a rich tradition of empirical studies involving the effects of personal decision biases involving trade-offs between future and present utility values. Although research in the area has identified several psychological biases in the decision making process, most research explores one bias at a time, given the computational complexity of considering more than one, among other reasons. This program of research proposes to create a numerical platform for exploring the implications of how countervailing biases may interact to create unexpected outcomes when two or more biases are present at the same time. It will use life-time savings decisions as a theoretical domain since both theory and empirical studies are well-developed. Our program of research involves four main stages: 1) analyzing the “Individual Utility Function” model in behavioral economics, 2) developing a simulation platform to explore strategies to maximize lifetime utility incorporating four biases widely-explored in the behavioral economics literature, 3) using the platform to explore main interactions among the four biases, and 4) reflect on the process and results to contribute to the field of behavioral economics. In this paper, we introduce these four steps, and also discuss initial progress in stages 1 and 2.

Click here for session slides.

Parallel: Economics
Venue: Active Learning Room (ALR)
Chair: Chris Browne

[toggle title=’1105: A System Dynamics View of the Phillips Machine: “Chasing some Hares!” (Presented by: Robert Y Cavana)’]
Authors: William H. Ryder & Robert Y Cavana

In 1949, A.W.H. (Bill) Phillips, a New Zealand electrical engineer studying sociology as an undergraduate at the London School of Economics, built a hydraulic simulator (called the MONIAC – Monetary National Income Analogue Computer) of the British economy based on contemporary economic theory. It illustrated stocks, flows, employed feedback among variables, drew sharp distinction between exogenous and endogenous variables, and plotted its outputs as behavior over time graphs. All of the “Principles of Systems” articulated by Jay W. Forrester more than a decade later have examples in this simulator. Although the term “system dynamics” had not yet been coined in 1949, this paper suggests that Phillips’ simulator could have been the first true system dynamics model applied to economics! The paper observes that this Phillips’s model possesses the following characteristics common to most system dynamics models:

• Operational orientation.
• Feedback as a central design feature.
• Isolation of outflows from the associated stock.
• Use of non-linear functions.
• Use of the model as a means to explain a complex system to other people.
• Use of the model as a spur to additional models.

The paper includes a mapping of the physical components of the machine to system dynamics notation and provides an overview of a system dynamics (Vensim) simulator of the Phillips machine. A number of simulations with the model are presented, together with calibrations against one of the remaining working versions of the MONIAC Phillips Machines housed at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand museum in Wellington, New Zealand.

[toggle title=’1034: Peer-to-Peer Public Money System — Its Grand Design with a Focus on Payments (Presented by: Yokei Yamaguchi)’]
Authors: Yokei Yamaguchi, Kaoru Yamaguchi

Lehman Shock in 20008 was the final proof that our current debt money system does not work. In that year, two historical publication took place coincidentally, which might transform our current money system of more than 250 years old: ASD macroeconomic model and Bitcoin. Since then, with ASD modeling method, the alternative system design of debt-free money, first proposed by Irving Fisher (1933), has been developed as the public money system by Yamaguchi (2013). It provides a significant part of economic solutions, but it lacks a system design of bitcoin, a peer-to-peer blockchain-based payment, proposed by Nakamoto \cite[2008]{Bitcoin}. This paper proposes a grand design that integrates public money system and peer-to-peer blockchain technology as p2p public money system. It then identifies 6 different payments, with simple SD models, under the current debt money system, and argues that these complicated payments remain under the public money system to a certain degree, but gets simplified into only one peer-to-peer payment under the p2p public money system, eliminating income inequality between financiers and non-financiers. Finally, it suggests the need for world-wide blockchain protocols that enable these transactions of p2p public money system.

[toggle title=’1053: Dynamics of Foreign Investment Under Economic Integration Environment (Presented by: Pard Teekasap)’]
Author: Pard Teekasap

An economic integration (EI) is when two or more firms integrate parts of their economy together through free trade agreement such as NAFTA or through economic union such as EU. An EI has been proved to attract foreign investment from countries outside of the EI zone. However, the effect on foreign investment from countries within the EI zone is ambiguous. One theory claimed that a foreign investment from countries within an EI zone will be reduced and is substituted by an international trade. Another theory mentioned that a foreign investment will be increased due to a lower cost of factor relocation. In this paper, we develop a system dynamics model having two countries with one firm in each country. Each firm can decide whether to export products to another country or to invest in that country. The results show that an economic integration will support both international trade and investment if two countries are not significantly different. However, if two countries have different production cost, firms in countries with higher production cost will relocate their operation to the countries with lower production cost and export products to countries with high production cost instead.


Parallel: Strategy
Venue: Seminar Room 2
Chair: Shayne Gary

[toggle title=’1055: System Dynamics Approach for Managing Turnover Problem in Professional Service Firm (Presented by: Arry Destyanto)’]
Authors: Arry Destyanto, Armand Moeis, Akhmad Hidayatno, Mohammad Rizky Nur Iman

Talented human resources is one of the key factors in a firm’s success to maintain its competitive advantage in the global era. The rising trend of turnover is causing firms to rethink their strategy in maintaining their talented human resource. This issue challenges firms especially that rely on talented human resource such as professional service firms. Turnover has direct and indirect negative impact for firms. Previous researches had been conducted research to understand the underlying problem that causes turnover, and the strategy to overcome it. This research calls for a modeling structure of the turnover phenomena using a system dynamics approach, which can also be used to simulate various strategy. The output of the model is a recommendation of strategy that is most effective and has the best return on investment for organization. The results of simulation study will be discussed at the end of the paper.

Click here for session slides.
[toggle title=’1061: Scenario Planning using System Dynamics for Reducing Uncertainty on Managing Employee Turnover (Presented by: Akhmad Hidayatno)’]
Authors: Akhmad Hidayatno, Arry Destyanto, Armand Moeis, Mohammad Rizky Nur Iman

In order to maintain the competitiveness of an organization in the global competition era, the presence of qualified human resources has become one of the key factors. Unlike product quality, qualified human resources have the capacity and talents that are not easy to replicate. Therefore, researchers and practitioners have been looking for the best strategy to manage turnover in an organization. However, the problem with turnover is that it has become more dynamic and changes along time, causing for uncertainties in the impact of the strategy implemented. This research will show how ‘scenario planning’ is used in a system dynamics model to minimize the level of uncertainties. The scenarios generated are not limited to the changes in assumptions, but also includes alternatives of trends that may happen in the future (plausible scenario). This paper focuses on discussing the process of generating and testing the plausible scenarios to the model. The implication of the scenarios is also compared to the initial output of the model.

Click here for session slides.
[toggle title=’1002: The growth stage of Japanese game apps market: A case study and simulation (Presented by: Makoto Kimura)’]
Author: Makoto Kimura

This empirical case study examines the marketing in the growth stage of the Japanese game apps market by the classification of business strategies for the game apps such as the lean startup strategy and the imitation strategy. To conduct this examination, a model to calculate the sales performance of game app superstars is proposed using system dynamics techniques, and the transition of key performance indicators is estimated. An examination of the case study and the simulated results of the model suggest that (1) mass media advertisements through game app TV commercials work well for three months, even though five months after an official service release; (2) under game apps that adopted the imitation strategy, the number of multihoming users reaches approximately half of the new registered users and the average revenue per paid user (ARPPU) is higher than that adopted under the lean startup strategy; (3) the game apps adopted the lean startup strategy or imitation strategy coexist in the stage of growth market.

Click here for paper.
Click here for session slides.

Parallel: Performance and Cost in Health
Venue: Seminar Room 3
Chair: Naviyn Balakrishnan

[toggle title=’1019: The relationship between a cost reduction in medical expenses and utilizing smart health, and a driving factor in Japan (Presented by: Yosuke Nakajima)’]
Authors: Yosuke Nakajima, Yutaka Takahashi, Naohiko Kotake

Reduction in medical expenses which keep being increased is a problem of all the countries. In this paper, it was considered using System Dynamics to understand how utilization of digital and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) impacts on medical expenses in Japan, what the point is and when it appears. There is a study by which control of a disease and the reduction of medical expenses shows that there is a significant relation. There is a study that the disease education for which digital and ICT was utilized indicated significant cost benefit compared with existing disease education. Utilization of digital and ICT is expected that it is a useful tool for a problem solution in the healthcare field (healthy, medical treatment and the nursing field) from the research results. These approaches which utilize digital and ICT for a problem solution of the healthcare field is called “health Tech” or “digital health”. Utilization of digital and ICT to the problem solution in healthcare field and a system which is collecting data from human body, analyzing them with data mining or machine learning method and the analysis results are feed backed to individuals as advices is called a smart health in this paper.

[toggle title=’1054: Assessing alternative Caesarean Section reduction policies through a Dynamic Performance Management approach (Presented by: Enzo Bivona)’]
Authors: Enzo Bivona, Federico Cosenz

The World Health Organisation since last three decades strongly encourages countries to reduce the Caesarean Section (CS) rate down to 10-15%. However, this goal nowadays appears still far from its achievement. Public decision makers are indeed struggling to design and implement effective policies to reduce the CS rate. The literature provides a wide range of factors causing a change in the CS rate, such as the patient clinical profile and the healthcare service quality provided. Maternity Pathway (MP) is considered a mean through which to standardise the cares and to reduce CSs. This study investigates the MP recently introduced in Sicilian local health authorities. Based on such an analysis, an outcome-based performance management approach has been used by the authors to build a System Dynamics model. Scenario simulation results reveal that such an approach may support decision makers to learn how to design CS reduction policies. It particularly remarks the necessity to implement policies oriented to coordinate the actions undertaken by the different actors playing a crucial role in the MP.

Click here for session slides.
[toggle title=’1028: Estimating Costs and Benefits of Stroke Management: A Population-Based Simulation Model of Improvement Scenarios (Presented by: Nirmali Sivapragasam)’]
Authors: Steffen Bayer, Kirsten Eom, Nirmali Sivapragasam, John Ansah, Deidre de Silva, Gerald Koh, Kelvin Tan, David Matchar

In the context of population aging and a growing body supporting effectiveness and economic evaluations of strategies for acute stroke care, this paper presents a population-level system dynamics (SD) model for Singapore to assess various stroke interventions for policy decision-making. The SD model investigates 12 intervention scenarios based on six stroke interventions (a public information campaign, improvements in thrombolysis, endovascular therapy, acute stroke unit, out-of-hospital rehabilitation, and secondary prevention), singly or in plausible combinations. Primary outcomes included the cumulative discounted costs and cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained between status quo and each intervention scenario by 2030, as well as cumulative net monetary benefits (NMB). Secondary outcomes included differences in stroke incidence, prevalence, and fatality rates, and cumulative care volumes between the status quo and each intervention scenario by 2030.All intervention scenarios, singly and combined, result in an increase in NMB compared to current practice of stroke management in Singapore by 2030. Furthermore, acute-care interventions, when combined with a public information campaign to raise awareness of stroke symptoms, leads to a synergistic increase in QALYs and NMB gained. As a single intervention strategy, an increase in out-of-hospital rehabilitation yielded the greatest value (in terms of NMB) cumulatively, by 2030.


Special Topics in System Dynamics I – Monday, 20 Feb 2017, Day 1 (Main Conference)
Time: 3.30-5.00pm
Chair: Aaron Chia Eng Seng

Venue: Auditorium
[toggle title=’1036: Trajectories of functional ability: a dynamic model of the interaction of stress-induced functional loss and resilience (Presented by: John Ansah)’]
Authors: John Ansah, David Matchar, Victoria Koh

Successful aging has become an increasingly popular concept in light of population aging worldwide. Understanding resilience is integral to identifying factors that facilitate successful aging in individuals. Yet, current literature on resilience lacks a common framework and clarity of concepts. In this paper, we develop and describe a single consolidated framework that allows for empirical investigation of life course trajectories of functional ability in individuals. By implementing precise variables in the framework, explicit definitions are given to the factors affecting the life course trajectory and thus resilience. This model can then be used as a boundary object for further discussion within the field. In doing so, potential interventions to increase resilience can also be identified.

Click here for session slides.
[toggle title=’1014:System Dynamics of Regional Competitiveness: The Case of Busan, South Korea (Presented by: Martin Kunc)’]
Authors: UngKyu Han, Martin Kunc

In recent decades, policy effect on regional competitiveness is an on-going concern for policy makers and academics. We employed a capacity−capability−performance perspective to analyse the system dynamics of knowledge-based innovation process affecting regional competitiveness. This study identifies policy interventions that effectively contribute to the sustainable growth of Busan, a metropolitan city in Korea, as an example of the application of our perspective. The results indicate the importance of human resources rather than R&D expenditure. Further, shortening the lead time for knowledge commercialisation is a more effective strategy than for knowledge development, whereas a success rate adjustment is more effective when it is applied to knowledge development rather than knowledge commercialisation.

Click here for session slides.

[toggle title=’1010: Addressing socio-ecological problems in coastal zone of Southeast Asia using system dynamics (Presented by: Carl Smith)’]
Authors: Carl Smith, Russell Richards

In SE-Asia, coastal ecosystems provide many services to communities, including the provision of food, protection of storms and pollution, as well as recreational and tourism services. These coastal ecosystems, and the services they provide, are under threat across SE-Asia due to rapid population growth and development. Many socio-ecological problems have arisen as a result. Examples of these are fish catch decline, mangrove loss, water pollution and food insecurity. In this paper we describe work being undertaken in the Capturing Coral Reef and Related Ecosystem Services (CCRES) project, a Global Environment Facility, World Bank and University of Queensland funded project. This work is using systems thinking and system dynamics, along with community engagement, to understand why these socio-ecological problems occur and what can be done to address them. The project is only half complete, however our results to date show that systems thinking and systems dynamics are useful methods for addressing socio-ecological problems. Success depends on using appropriate tools and processes to engage the community and package models in ways that are accessible to most people. We have and are developing Apps and scripts for this purpose, for both data capture and for model delivery, which demystify systems thinking and systems dynamics and facilitate its use in socio-ecological problem solving.

Click here for session slides.

Keynote Speakers – Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017, Day 2 (Main Conference)

Plenary Session 3
Venue: NAK Auditorium

Time: 9-10am
Chair: John Richardson

[toggle title=’PC Lui: Large Scale Systems of Singapore’]
Singapore became an independent nation on 9th August 1965 with a population of 2 million, per capita GDP of US$526 and a territory of 1400 square kilometre. The priority of the Government was the creation of jobs, defending the country, providing education for the young and medical services and homes for the population. Centralized planning at the national level was necessary in the early years. The process of centralized planning and decentralized execution evolved over time. The need to create jobs remain a major preoccupation of the Government. The balance between investment in economic development, social development and national security is carefully managed to achieve optimization at the national level. Examples from the strategic systems of creation of usable space, supply of portable water and the future economic system based on research, innovation and enterprise will be used to illustrate the Systems Approach taken in planning and development of large scale systems.


Plenary Session 4
Venue: NAK Auditorium

Time: 10.15-11.15am
Chair: John Richardson

[toggle title=’Kishore Mahbubani: Is Humanity Becoming More or Less Reasonable?’]
Is the world becoming a better place? Or are we becoming worse off? The Western answers to these questions are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Even Francis Fukuyama is becoming pessimistic. After the election of Donald Trump, he said, “The risk of sliding into a world of competitive and equally angry nationalisms is huge.” Yet, the evidence suggests that we should be optimistic. Absolute poverty is diminishing rapidly. Infant mortality is declining. People are living longer. Middle class populations are exploding all around the world. Literacy is spreading like wildfire. We are now seeing the best-educated population ever in human history. And why are things better? The simple answer is that the world is seeing the universalisation of Western reasoning. As a result, the world has seen three major revolutions. Firstly, governments are now accountable to their people, not people to governments. Secondly, rational governance is spreading to all corners. Thirdly, science and technology are also being applied universally. This is why the world is now seeing a new global paradox. While the West is becoming pessimistic, the rest are becoming optimistic. This lecture will explain the new global paradox.


Concurrent Session 2 – Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017, Day 2 (Main Conference)
Time: 1.30-3pm

Parallel: Methodology II
Venue: GLR
Chair: Naviyn Balakrishnan
[toggle title=’1009: How to Explain History Using SD Model (Presented by: Toru Suetake)’]
Author: Toru Suetake

There would be three approaches for explain history using SD model. First one is, explain change of history with change of mechanism that driven history. For example, International trade network of Arabic merchant was taken over by armed Portuguese Navy and this change drives change of Swahili culture. This shown Ki Swahili language commonly adapted in East Africa includes so many words from Portuguese. Second approach is, explain with adaptation of model, similar like business model leads to success firm in these days. Some country could success because they adapt that model, while other country decline because fail to adapting that business model. This approach may think history as competition of countries like competition of firms in business world. Third approach is using agent model and represent elements of history with agents. Event of history would reappear with behavior and interactions between agents. In this paper, I shows how effective for explain history using SD model with first two approaches.

[toggle title=’1045: A System Dynamics approach for modeling Construction Workers Hazard Perception and Unsafe Behaviors (Presented by: Jinwoo Kim)’]
Authors: Jinwoo Kim, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park, Minji Choi, Nahyun Kwon

Finding causes of workers’ unsafe behaviors is important to prevent construction accidents because 80 percent of accidents occur by workers’ unsafe behaviors. In this regard, this research aims to investigate possible reasons of workers’ unsafe behaviors based on workers’ cognitive process model using System dynamics. This study is based on two ways of workers’ cognitive process which are in relation to hazard perception and failure of hazard perception. Based on existing literature, causal loops for workers’ cognitive process are developed to explain workers’ habituation by staying out of accidents, safety learning by experience, failure of hazard perception, and attitude change by accidents. The interactions between the developed loops provide managerial insights to reduce workers’ unsafe behaviors from a safety manager’s perspective including increasing the probability of workers’ hazard perception through knowledge management, maintaining workers’ positive attitude toward safety, and controlling first-line supervisors to eliminate workers’ unsafe behavior. The research allows us to better understand the causes and solutions of workers’ unsafe behaviors in workers’ cognitive perspectives.

[toggle title=’1027: Using systems dynamics to understand food insecurity across fisheries and agricultural systems in coastal communities within So (Presented by: Melanie King)’]
Authors: Melanie King, Carl Smith, Russell Richards

With the poorer coastal populations of the Asia-Pacific heavily reliant on small-scale fisheries and agriculture to meet their food and livelihood needs, their prospects for a food secure future depends directly on the services provided by coastal ecosystems e.g. fisheries, and their ability to purchase food through income generated by their livelihoods, which also depend directly on coastal ecosystem services. In Southeast Asia these coastal ecosystem services are in decline due to endogenous pressures, such as resource degradation, development, and increasing demand for goods and services, as well as exogenous pressures, such as population growth, rising imports of food and climate change. Using system dynamics, this research aims to understand how interactions among coastal ecosystems, economies and societies influence the food security of coastal communities. The research uses El Nido, Palawan in the Philippines as a case study to develop a dynamic hypothesis for food security that incorporates food sources from marine habitats and from agriculture, and then a system dynamic model to simulate the influence of policies and pressures on food security and the food security resilience. The results will be utilised in an on-ground project to identify opportunities where modifications to existing business activity, or the introduction of new businesses, can improve the food security of coastal communities.

Click for session slides.

Parallel: Screening and Prevention in Health
Venue: ALR
Chair: Kenji Takada

[toggle title=’1049: Dynamic System Analysis on Colorectal Cancer Screening in Community with the Method of System Dynamics (Presented by: Cai Yu-yang)’]
Authors: Xuedong Ma, Kouzhu Wang, Yu Yang Cai

Objective: To take colorectal cancer screening project in the precinct of Gumei Community Health Service Center, Minhang District of Shanghai as the object of study, and to analyze dynamic complicity of colorectal cancer screening project in community, so that to define leverage point for implementing of colorectal cancer screening project in community and to provide a thinking tool for systematic analysis on underlying causes for poor compliance. Methods: It carried out focus group interview with first-line executives of colorectal cancer screening in community, screening data management staffs and administrator to define practical situation of colorectal cancer screening project in community. Deeply, it analyzed dynamic complicity of colorectal cancer screening project in community through systems thinking. At last, it established system model and causal flow diagram with systematic dynamic modeling software Vensim5.6. Results: Colorectal cancer screening system in community comprises governmental policy operation mechanism subsystem, community annual plan and execution subsystem, colorectal cancer screening subsystem as well as patients detection and information management subsystem. Wherein, Governmental policy operation mechanism subsystem reflects outlays and policies operation mechanism implemented by such governmental departments as health bureau for colorectal cancer screening project in community. Community annual plan and execution subsystem aims at breakdown of approaches for use of outlays as provided by the government on the execution level, which reflects community input plan and flow. As major working module in the system, colorectal cancer screening subsystem reflects the execution of colorectal cancer screening in community. Patients detection and information management subsystem serves as the rear terminal of the system, which reflects results of colorectal cancer screening. Conclusions: Propaganda of policies on colorectal cancer screening project in community, health education and free screening service serve as the important factors to encourage residents to take part in colorectal cancer screening. Meanwhile, inadequate propaganda of policies, imperfect assessment of executives and post screening service may result in decrease in screening population and poor screening compliance, which would be the critical points to be improved next in the implementation of colorectal cancer screening projects in communities in Shanghai.

[toggle title=’1060: A System Dynamics Model of Impacts on Environment Related to Thais’ Food Consumption (Presented by: Piyanit Churak)’]
Authors: Piyanit Churak, Nobuo Nishi

Food insecurity would be affected by environmental impacts of the food system because insufficient food production yields to the number of consumers. This study aimed to develop a simulation model of greenhouses gas (GHGs) emission related to food consumption of Thais by population age group and simulate scenarios of changing food consumption with the altering outcomes on environment. Aging chains were made by age group of infants, children, adults and elderly and GHGs from food consumption were calculated. Population for each age group and their consumption were optimized to actual numbers. Simulations were set at 2006-2030. The overall emission was higher than that of Food-based Dietary Guidelines (FBDGs). The contribution was the highest from adults. The four scenarios were made by changing amount of food consumed. Reducing meat intake and substituted energy intake by vegetables has influenced to decrease of emission. Decreasing of beverages in children and adults provided the drastic change in decreasing GHGs. Additional increase of milk intake by elderly had affected to GHGs level in a few numbers. Food choices may ultimately result in impacts on the environment. It is therefore recommended that environmental friendly consumption practices should be encouraged for human well-being and food security.

[toggle title=’1016: A system dynamics model of Australian suicidal behaviour and suicide prevention strategies (Presented by: Mark Heffernan)’]
Authors: Mark Heffernan, Andrew Page, Geoff McDonnell, Jo-An Atkinson

Suicide remains one of the leading causes of death in young people and contributes significant social, economic and health system costs to Australia. The rate of suicide has remained constant in the Australian population despite substantial government and private investment, significant community and political momentum, and efforts to improve coordination and alignment of programs and services. Dynamic simulation modelling is increasingly being recognised as a valuable decision support tool to help guide investments and actions to address complex public health problems such as suicide. In particular, system dynamics (SD) modelling provides a useful tool for asking high level ‘what if’ questions; testing at an aggregate level the likely impacts of different combinations of policies and interventions before they are implemented in the real world. This paper reports the development of an SD model of suicide prevention in Australia and its findings. Additionally, the paper highlights the value of dynamic modelling methods for managing complexity and uncertainty and demonstrates its potential utility as a decision support tool for policy makers and program planners for suicide prevention.

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Parallel: Health in Singapore
Venue: SR 2
Chair: Jia Loon Chong

[toggle title=’1030: Envisioning enhanced primary care in Singapore: a group model building approach (Presented by: John Ansah)’]
Authors: David Matchar, John Ansah, Steffen Bayer, Peter Hovmand, Victoria Koh, Lukas Schoenenberger

Singapore is experiencing a growing number of people with illnesses requiring chronic care, particularly individuals with multiple and complex conditions. However, increasing the capacity and capabilities of the primary care workforce to suit the needs of the evolving population is not entirely straightforward in Singapore and involves multiple interrelated issues. To more explicitly approach the issue of whether and how to enhance primary care services in Singapore, we convened a 2-day meeting, termed the Primary Care Roundtable, comprising 50 local and international stakeholders and experts with an interest in primary care delivery. Private general practitioners, polyclinics, hospitals, ministries, and academic researchers were represented. The goal of the meeting was to: (1) surface the range of issues facing Singapore in addressing the challenges of providing excellent chronic care; and (2) develop a “qualitative causal model” of the issues raised. The qualitative causal model represented the group’s hypotheses regarding how key system features promoted or inhibited improving primary care, and facilitated identifying leverage points for maximizing positive change. In this paper, we summarize the status of this work, and discuss how the dynamic framework developed by the participants can serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate further discussion among stakeholders, and as foundation for research and policy action.

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[toggle title=’1092: Dengue Fever in Singapore: A Long Term Solution Involving Wolbachia Technology (Presented by: Nicholas Neo)’]
Authors: Nicholas Neo, Chiam Sheng Yeow, Darren Ng, Jun Sing Tan, Sheng Ren Lim

This paper seeks to model the spread of dengue fever in Singapore as well as the policies implemented by the government to tackle the problem, in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the policies implemented. It is found that both of the current policies implemented, namely fumigation and the “Do the Mozzie Wipeout” campaign, are limited in their effectiveness, and require constant monetary and labour input from the government in order to be sustained. Therefore, to better solve the problem of dengue in Singapore in the long-run, the self-sustaining solution of using Wolbachia technology is proposed and analysed.

[toggle title=’1093: HIV in Singapore a Comprehensive Study (Presented by: Ruohua Zhou)’]
Authors: Ruohua Zhou, Edward Tan, Ang Rui Xiu, Zimu Yan, Qing Zhang

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) has been on the rise in Singapore. The current policies adopted, the promotion of abstinence, being faithful and using condoms, have been largely ineffective. This report identifies the ‘shifting the burden’ archetype, which explains the failure to reduce new HIV cases annually. This report then proposes a model to illustrate the systems dynamics of HIV in Singapore, and is verified with historical data. Projecting forward, Singapore is expected to face an increase in new HIV cases from 455 to 515. This report suggests two policies, increasing early HIV detection rates and enhancing the education on abstinence and being faithful. This two-pronged approach effectively reduces the number of HIV cases in Singapore in the long term.


Parallel: Resources and the Environment
Venue: SR 3
Chair: Russell Richards

[toggle title=’1063: Case Study of Asahiyama Zoo – Structure Analysis on Dynamics in Urban Zoo’s Exhibit (Presented by: Chungmin Lee)’]
Authors: Chang-Kwon Chung, Chungmin Lee

This study explores the impacts of urban zoo’s exhibit on zoo management including wild captive animals, visitor’s experience, and profit based on systems thinking. Traditional exhibit with simple concrete cubic and iron bar,‘non-naturalistic enclosure’, in urban zoos causes a lot of stresses and stereotyped behaviors or abnormal behaviors like repetitive pacing and head waving. We analyze the relationship between zoo exhibit design and accidents in zoo in terms of structural feedback. We also suggest two strategic leverage points influencing on management of urban zoo with supporting case, Asahiyama Zoo. One strategic leverage point is about how to deal with accidents in zoo, and the other is concerning about how to overcome the financial crisis resulting from those accidents. We close by suggesting designing naturalistic exhibit for fundamental solution to both leverage points.

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[toggle title=’1011: Deforestation and Pulp and Paper Industry Industry: System Dynamic Growth Model of Acacia and Eucalyptus Approach (Presented by: Andi Rosilala)’]
Author: Andi Rosilala

This paper analyzes how pulp and paper industry becomes one of the most contributors to deforestation in Indonesia. The core problem in pulp and paper industry is the uncertainty of wood supply and heavily reliant on natural forest. The uncertainty of wood supply can be explained by declining growth of Acacia and Eucalyptus. This trend can be more severe by pest and disease and forest fire factors. Compansating the declining trend by expanding new land area assumed relating to the deforestation activity in Indonesia over the years.

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[toggle title=’1051: Modeling Sustainability Scenarios of Renewable Natural Resources and Economic Growth using System Dynamics (Presented by: Mihir Mathur)’]
Authors: Mihir Mathur, Kabir Sharma

This paper presents a theoretical model of the relationship between Renewable Natural Resources (RNR), local economy and industrial economy. Through system dynamics modelling, this study tests the impact of three policy interventions, 1) Resource efficiency, 2) Resource efficiency and green growth and 3) Localisation of economy, on RNR and the economy. The base case simulation indicates overshoot and collapse of economy due to resource depletion. Resource efficiency and green growth policies are successful in delaying the overshoot and decline of the economy but fail to offer economic recovery. Localization of economy increases the economy‘s responsiveness to depletion of the natural resource stock, thereby enabling it to avoid the economic overshoot and decline within the simulation time. In the extended time scenario the local economy also goes into an overshoot and decline but it manages recovery resulting into long term oscillations. Through these scenarios the paper highlights the need for economy to be proactively responsive towards changes in levels of stock of RNR rather than flows (i.e. supply) in order to avoid an overshoot and fall. The paper concludes by making a case for promotion of slow growth local economies as a strategy to enable transition towards long term ecological-economic equilibrium.

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Parallel: Business Operations and Public Policy
Venue: Auditorium
Chair: Enzo Bivona

[toggle title=’1015: System Dynamics based Decision Support System for Fleet Management: A Case Study (Presented by: Francesco Ceresia)’]
Authors: Francesco Ceresia, Giovanni Tumminello, Roberto Dolce

Nowadays fleet management is playing a fundamental role in private as well as in public organizations. Particularly important is considered the role of fleet management when decision makers have to decide whether to undertake strategic policies about fleet renewal or strategic policies aimed at containing investment costs through, for example, a better maintenance management. However, the adoption of such strategies may produce several effects in short and long term on business outcomes and may also affect other key performance drivers. This paper explores how the System Dynamics (SD) methodology can support managers for the effectiveness of decision-making process about fleet management, advising on a systemic perspective for analysing the main effects resulting by the adoption of different strategic policies. Moreover, a case study on how SD has been deployed to provide a fleet management decision support system for the managers of a public-owned company operating in the field of waste management services is provided. Finally, scenario analysis is presented and discussed.

[toggle title=’1057: Sustaining Competitive Edge of Indian Outsourcing IT-ITes Industry: A Systems Approach (Presented by: Sushil Sushil)’]
Authors: Neetu Yadav, Anil Bhat, Sushil Sushil

India has been one of the top global exporters of human capital for outsourcing IT-ITes (Information Technology enabled services) industry. Given unique demographic characteristics of that of availability of young talented pool of knowledge professionals in India at competitive prices, it is worth probing the effect of crucial factors on the sustainability of competitive advantage of this industry in the present turbulent global environment. This article adopts Porter’s “diamond model of national advantage” to investigate competitive advantage of India in IT-ITes outsourcing industry with an emphasis on systems approach. Dynamics among these crucial elements have been captured in terms of causal-loop diagrams (CLDs) that reinforce the fact that non-linear growth strategies for moving up the value chain and going beyond merely outsourcing services to innovative propriety products is the only remedy to sustain competitive edge in this industry. Government initiatives such as Digital India and Make-in-India campaigns work as boosters of domestic demand that lead enormous investments in infrastructure for technological advancements. Systems perspective reveals that India’s competitive edge in outsourcing IT-ITes industry would be sustained by focusing on non-liner growth and differentiation strategies with robust governmental support as cost competitiveness may no longer provide a sustainable competitive advantage.

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[toggle title=’1095: Building the Runway: Igniting the Growth of the Thai Fashion Design Industry (Presented by: I-Ling Chia)’]
Authors: I-Ling Chia, John Richardson

Governments often attempt to develop the next high-growth sector by training workers, building infrastructure, and providing financial support to nurture the industry. In the development of creative industries, these supply-driven factors alone may not be sufficient. In this study, a generic model was created based on the concept of attractiveness multipliers inspired by the Urban Dynamics model, such as the attractiveness of the industry to job seekers. This study examined the dynamics of Thailand’s fashion design industry and the role of attraction in drawing people in and out of the design industry and in promoting the export of Thai fashion design products since the launch of the Bangkok Fashion City project, a landmark public-private initiative to transform its fashion industry in 2003. The findings showed that training more skilled workers and raising the number of firms and designers alone were not enough to promote export growth. Instead, greater value added could be achieved by enhancing the attractiveness of the fashion design products. External stimuli in the form of marketing initiatives were also critical in helping the industry weather economic downturns and lift export growth in the boom years. With stronger enterprise environment support, such as a strong intellectual property regime, more firms could also survive the buffeting of economic crises.


Special Topics in System Dynamics II – Tuesday, 21 Feb 2017, Day 2 (Main Conference)
Time: 3.30-5pm
Venue: Auditorium
Chair: Carl Smith

[toggle title=’1026: Rich world, poor world: sustainability and resource scarcity (Presented by: William Grace)’]
Author: William Grace

This article reports the results of experiments undertaken using a global economy-population-resources model to examine the future of trade in raw materials between the rich and poor countries of the world. The model is a variation of a previous model that examined the impact of resource scarcity on the global economy in aggregate. As identified in the previous article, and various other studies, the world faces resource scarcity in the coming century under business-as-usual economic conditions, resulting in at least some degree of economic and population collapse. The impact of these circumstances on the poorer countries, whose endowment of resources is small compared to the rich world, is exacerbated if trade in raw materials declines as scarcity increases. Significant improvements in resource efficiency and a rapid reduction in fossil fuel combustion are required to avoid collapse, maintain a viable economy and improve average living standards across the world. Retaining global trade in resources is necessary to ensure the poorer countries can make this transition, but may not be sufficient to ensure the future of the (presently) lowest income countries.

[toggle title=’1078: Group Model Building Techniques for Rapid Elicitation of Parameter Values and Effect-Size-Driven Formulations (Presented by: David Andersen)’]
Authors: Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, Rod MacDonald, Julie Maurer, Deborah Andersen, George Richardson, Joshua Hawley

Much of the existing group model-building literature focuses on approaches to defining model boundary and conceptualizing overall model structure including the creation of a backbone stock-and-flow structure as well as mapping key feedback structures into the model. Detailed formulation and parameter estimates is often left to back room techniques. The paper reports on the use of three scripts designed to engage groups in tasks related to model parameterization. The paper describes the context of the study—a group model building session hosted by the Ohio State University and focusing on infant mortality in the state of Ohio—and then proceeds to lay out the agenda for the two-day group modeling project. We discuss in detail how three scripts were used and also present a summary of the data that was collected to parameterize the final model. The paper sketches how that data has been used to support the rapid prototyping of the first phase of a running simulation model.

[toggle title=’1077: Dynamics of Post-Merger and Post-Acquisition Integrations (Presented by: Shayne Gary)’]
Authors: Shayne Gary, Shanie Atkinson

This paper examines the dynamics of a post-merger and acquisition (M&A) integration process. Integrating a merger or acquisition is a dynamically complex managerial challenge and our combination of fieldwork and simulation modelling provides new insights for scholars, policy makers, and practicing managers. From our field data, we identify four common behaviour modes for the performance of an M&A integration over time and develop a simulation model capable of generating all four behaviour models. Simulation analyses highlight the important role of several feedback processes that have not been identified in prior work: (1) the ‘Achieving target synergy’ balancing feedback loop, (2) ‘Integration fatigue low monitoring’ reinforcing feedback loop, and (3) ‘Commitment and apathy’ reinforcing feedback loop.

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Poster Exhibition (Please click here for: Instructions for preparation of posters)
[toggle title=’A1 – 1004: Why some research methods are better received–a comparison of structural equation modeling and system dynamics modeling (Presented by: Ying Qian)’]
Authors: Ying Qian, Zongfeng Zou, Yirong Ying, Xuehua Zhang

In IS research paradigm, the method of structure equation modeling is well received by the top journals while system dynamics modeling only have few publications. In this paper, we compare the papers use structural equation modeling and system dynamics modeling from the aspects of theory building, model building, and model testing. In doing so, we would like to seek ways to promote the acceptance of system dynamics works in major peer-reviewed journals.

[toggle title=’A2 – 1005: Research on System Dynamics Modeling of Revenue and Expenditure of Military Hospital Fund (Presented by: Lei Xu)’]
Authors: Bo Peng, Qing Yang Wang, Lei Xu

Revenue and expenditure of military hospital fund is mainly military health fund investment and external paid services fund. This thesis started with system dynamics method, applied quantitative research and computer simulation method into quantitative research on supply mechanism of military hospital medical fund, and analyzed the military medical consumption and medical security level in military hospital. According to modeling steps of SD method, the author successively analyzed the reality system in detail, established causal relation graph and flow chart of the system, identified the functional relation, and simulated four types of simulation schemes, including “health fund investment”, “administrative intervention” and others, thus obtaining the computational results, quantitative results of military medical fund of military hospital and digital opinions and suggestions on reform and development of military hospital, which will provide an important data reference for military medical health system reform.


[toggle title=’A3 – 1073: Peer dynamics: an SD reflection on undergraduate peer-review feedback (Presented by: Chris Browne)’]
Authors: Chris Browne, Afiq Oslan

This paper reflects on the dynamics of peer review process used in the delivery of an engineering analysis class. Over seven iterations, students were required to submit drafts for ongoing work, which was then peer reviewed by fellow classmates. The activity was scaffolded, and took a students-as-partners approach, where students are partners in the process of teaching. Experiences of the review process were mixed, and was measured with a variety of formal and informal feedback mechanisms. This paper examines unexpected observed dynamics that arose out of the process.

[toggle title=’A4 – 1022: The Role of Energy in Waste Management Process (Presented by: Sushil Sushil)’]
Authors: Aarti Singh,  Sushil Sushil

This paper focused on the waste management scenario in Indian organization through system dynamic modeling technique. Waste management is not a new term for Indian organization, it is propagated term which became an integral part of organizations. Various waste management models have been studied which focus on waste management process in particular organization. This study represents the role of energy in waste management process through system dynamics modeling technique. In this research, a system dynamic model has been developed through adopting the verified waste management factors, identified from the literature. System dynamic methodology is used in this research for simulating the effect of energy on waste management process. National Thermal Power Corporation Limited (NTPC) an Indian governmental organization has been chosen for conducting the study. Fly ash has been taken for representing the waste. The causal loop diagram has been used for developing the concept, which has been simulated through system dynamics model. Keywords: Energy, Fly ash, System Dynamics, Waste Management.

[toggle title=’A5 – 1023: Projecting the Population’s Demand for Acute Hospital Beds in a Country Experiencing Rapid Population Aging (Presented by: John Ansah)’]
Authors: Ke Zhou, John Ansah, David Matchar

Like several other developed countries, Singapore experienced severe overcrowding problem in the public acute hospitals (AH) during the past few years. In view of the likely increase in the demand for hospital services due to population ageing and of the long time it takes to build hospitals, strategic capacity planning for AH services will be necessary to avoid overbuilding or underbuilding. In this study, we developed a system dynamics model that captures the chronic health states of the population and associated demand for health services and we used this model to project the future demand for AH beds, which is the cornerstone of capacity planning. We found that compared to 2016, the demand for AH beds in Singapore may increase by 38% (24% to 100%) in 2020 and 117% (82% to 220%) in 2030. The uncertainty in the result is largely attributable to uncertainty in two factors: the transition probabilities between chronic health states, and the proportion of patients with poor social support. Improved estimation of these parameters will lead to more accurate projection and indeed provides a strong case for collecting such data.

[toggle title=’A6 – 1024: Healthcare Manpower Dynamics in an Ageing Singapore Population (Presented by: Jia Loon Chong)’]
Authors: Jia Loon Chong, Huang Jirong

Singapore today is ageing at an unprecedented pace. The profound dynamic repercussions of this demographic change on the local healthcare system is hence an important issue to understand and prepare for. In this study, we utilized a validated system dynamics model to seek to understand three healthcare scenario possibilities in the context of an ageing population: the worst case scenario, the current scenario, and the best case scenario. Firstly, we discovered that better quality of care is associated with preventing doctors from leaving the public sector but in order to continue delivering high quality care it is necessary to have inflow of new doctors. Secondly, we found current projections of new doctor intake rates sufficient for keeping pace with the increased demands of an ageing population until 2030. Finally, we demonstrate that interventions to retain overworked public sector doctors improve quality of care. Possible policy levers to improve work quality among overworked doctors hence include intake quota increases for foreign medical graduates as well as morale boosting incentives for doctors (both financial and non-financial) aimed at reducing attrition.

[toggle title=’A7 – 1025: The Impact of Capacity Planning Strategies on System-level Outcomes in A Country Experiencing Rapid Population Aging (Presented by: John Ansah)’]
Authors: Ke Zhou, John Ansah, David Matchar

In this study, we expanded on the model described in the study titled “Projecting the Population’s Demand for Acute Hospital Beds in a Country Experiencing Rapid Population Aging” to capture the supply of hospital beds and the interaction between supply and use of hospital beds when hospital beds are underbuilt relative to demand. We examined the impact of different capacity strategies on the system-level outcomes. We found that building acute hospital (AH) and community hospital (CH) to match the projected demands leads to the most desirable system outcomes (i.e. appropriate level of hospital occupancy rate, lowest waiting time for elective admissions, smallest proportion of patients seeking alternative care due to prolonged waiting time, and lowest proportion of AH beds occupied for non-acute needs) but also costs the most. Focusing on closing the gaps in the supply of CH in the short term but AH in the long term may be a reasonable strategy that strikes a balance between cost and other outcomes. However, more accurate data need to be collected to reduce the uncertainty in the findings.

[toggle title=’A8 – 1032: A System Thinking Approach on How to Reduce Cost Overrun in the Construction of Industrial Buildings (Presented by: Davied Insja)’]
Author: Davied Insja

It is obvious that the performance of construction competitiveness hinges on project delivery cost. Many approaches have been used to reduce the effect of the potential factors of cost overrun on project delivery cost. In this study, the system approach has been employed and validated. An inferential statistical analysis was conducted to analyze seventy-four factors during the primary study. Then they were classified into thirteen risk events and sixty-one risk sources. Utilizing the Delphi method, thirteen risk events became ten risk events and thirty-six risk sources. Furthermore, with the factor analysis method, thirteen risk events became nine risk events, and twenty-five risk sources. The holistic role of professionals in the construction of industrial buildings was illustrated with the aid of a causal loop analysis, showing a cause and effect relationship. Therefore, based on the findings, twenty-five risk sources and nine risk events could reduce cost overrun in the construction of industrial buildings. The intervention category, which has the most influence on the reduction of cost overrun, occurs during the planning stage to take into account material contingency.

[toggle title=’A9 – 1035: A Simulation model of Incidence of Cardiovascular Diseases using risk prediction chart in Japanese men (Presented by: Nobuo Nishi)’]
Authors: Nobuo Nishi, Takehiro Sugiyama

We developed a simulation model of incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from 2003 to 2032 for Japanese men aged 40 to 79. We used Japanese population data, number of total deaths, and data for cardiovascular risk (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, smoking, and diabetes) to optimize parameters by 10-year age group. We used the WHO/ISH risk prediction chart, and set the incidence rate for 5 risk levels as 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, and 6%, respectively (status quo). We also performed simulations assuming the 5th risk level as low as the 4th risk level (high-risk strategy) and the 5th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd risk levels as low as the 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st risk levels, respectively (population strategy). In the status quo, the number of CVD incidence increases continuously for men aged 60 to 69 years until around 2025. The high-risk strategy showed almost the same results as the status quo, but the population strategy revealed that a number of incident CVDs would be reduced to two thirds of the status quo eventually. In conclusion, the effect of aging on CVD incidence among the Japanese population is inevitable, but the population strategy could decrease incidence of CVDs substantially.

[toggle title=’A10 – 1038: Modeling the Economics of Grassland Degradation in Banni using System Dynamics (Presented by: Mihir Mathur)’]
Authors: Mihir Mathur, Kabir Sharma

This is a study on the interactions between the grassland, livestock, the invasive species Prosopis juliflora and the economy of the Banni grasslands, located in the district of Kachchh, Gujarat, India. The study focuses on modeling grassland degradation of Banni from 1992-2015 and simulates future scenarios up to 2030 using system dynamics modeling. An economic valuation of Banni’s economy is done by discounting the future earnings of the pastoral economy (milk, livestock sale, dung manure) and charcoal economy under two scenarios 1) Base case (Business as Usual), i.e. keeping things as they stand today and 2) Prosopis Removal Policy (PRP) i.e. where a decision is implemented to remove Prosopis from Banni. Under the BAU scenario, modeling results indicate that the Banni grassland is headed for severe fodder scarcity due to shrinking area under grassland. If PRP is implemented then Banni would be able to revive its grasslands and more than double the Present Value of future earnings, up to 2030. If the policy decision to remove Prosopis is delayed by 5 years then it results into a 30% reduction in earnings indicating the policy’s time sensitivity. The model serves as a test bed to evaluate management policies of Banni grasslands.

[toggle title=’A11 – 1059: Development Of Sukuk In Indonesia Based On System Dynamics (Presented by: Roikhan Mochamad)’]
Author: Roikhan Mochamad

This research aims to develop a simple model structure formulation that can be used for the process of forecasting the growth of Mudharabah Sukuk Indonesia in the future. The structure model formulation that describes the interaction of research variables simultaneously in the form of Stock Flow Diagram and expression of Mathematical Causal Models. The study produced three policy scenarios were simulated by the model structure constant such as Pessimistic scenario without any intervention, Moderate scenario simulated by the intervention of the variable inflation and Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate, and Optimistic scenario additional with religiosity variable as a stimulus. enario Based on simulation results, the most ideal policy scenario in this study is is The simulation results showed that the most optimal nominal value Mudharabah Sukuk Indonesia in year 2025 increased to Rp.1.260 trillion or increase 10,000 times compare to year 2006 which is only Rp. 125 billion. The simulation results also show combination of variables that interfered with religiosity at the level of the highest value in the model structure, generating a nominal value of Mudharabah Sukuk higher compared with other policy scenarios that do not include the variable religiosity intervened. This confirms that religiosity is a stimulus for the growth model of the nominal value of Mudharabah Sukuk.


[toggle title=’A12 – 1017: Using System Dynamics to Understand the Struggle Behind the Envisioned Downstream Agro-Industry Development in Aceh, Indonesia (Presented by: Trisna Mulyati)’]
Author: Trisna Mulyati

The successful agriculture industrialisation in developing regions is a big challenge which still continue to be pursued globally. It is a dynamically complex system with many interplay stakeholders. Properly managing it therefore requires root understanding of the underlying structures and feedback mechanisms that influence the systems behaviour. This study explores system dynamics modelling approach in Aceh, an emerging province of Indonesia, that has been envisioning a progressive downstream agro-industry development for many years with very little success. The findings indicate that the reinforcing loop of numerous efforts are so slow and worsen by the strong balancing loop of pressure from agriculture mafia in the system. This particularly includes the massive investment promotion that has caused a shifting the burden for Aceh due to widespread extortion practice being unaddressed, and thus leading to temporary business establishments or inactive business plans. It is evident that necessary law enforcement intervention has been mainly ignored all this time. Further investigations are underway to generate the simulation model to replicate the historical behaviour of the system as well as the policy recommendations for Aceh’s vision to be closer in realisation. Keywords: Aceh, agro-industry, agriculture planning, Indonesia, simulation model, techno-socio-economic systems, Stella, system dynamics, systems thinking.


[toggle title=’A13 – 1062: Possibility to Realize Smart Island Based on the Renewal Energy and Electric Vehicle (Presented by: Hiroki Kikuchi)’]
Authors: Hiroki Kikuchi, Atsushi Fukuda, Tetsuhiro Ishizaka

In recent year, many cities and towns attempt to reduce greenhouse gas to realize low carbon society. However, their impacts on greenhouse gas reduction are expectedly small without a management system to control energy consumption effectively. Thus, smart city or town has been promoted based on management of electricity supply dynamically. In this study, the system dynamics model was developed to simulate the electric control system in island resort. It is assumed that demand and supply system of electricity based on with solar power generation and EV will be introduced at a hotel in the island resort. And, CO2 emissions reduction was estimated as the impacts to introduce electric control system. As the results, it was found that such energy management system was expected to work effectively to reduce CO2 emissions by controlling electricity generated from solar power generation. Especially, saving of electricity usage during a day time might be significant.