Sunday, 19 Feb 2017 (Student research colloquium)
Venue: Global Learning Room (GLR), Education Resource Centre (Level 2)
Break: Open Courtyard (Level 1)
Chair: Yutaka Takahashi (Senshu University); Co-chair: Lakshminarayanan Samavedham (RC4)
|12.45-1.00pm||Student Research Colloquium opening||Prof John Richardson & Prof
|1.00-1.20pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 1
Title: Impact of farmers’ illegal behavior and intervention on the spread of African swine fever in Madagascar
|1.20-1.40pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 2
Title: Understanding Income Inequality in Singapore from Systems Dynamics Perspective
|1.40-2.00pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 3
Title: Keeping Voluntourism in Check
|Chia Zhe Min||GLR|
|2.00-2.20pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 4
Title: Water Scarcity in Beijing
|2.20-3.00pm||Break & Poster Exhibition||Open Courtyard (level 1)|
|3.00-3.20pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 5
Title: Singapore Public Housing Dynamics: Exploring Plausible Future of Public Housing Market
|Kian Ming Phua||GLR|
|3.20-3.40pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 6
Title: Biodiesel Blend Mandate Policy Impact on Malaysia Biodiesel Industry: A System Dynamics Approach
|M Zabid M Faeid||GLR|
|3.40-4.00pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 7
Title: Commercial Finning of Hammerhead Sharks
|Dion Ng Wei Jie||GLR|
|4.00-4.20pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 8
Title: Using System Dynamics to Analyze Project Finance and Risks: A Case Study of A Toll Road Project
|4.20-4.40pm||Student Paper Presentation – paper 9
Title: Dynamics of Zika Transmission in Singapore
|Ying Tze Siow||GLR|
|4.40-5.30pm||Break & Poster Exhibition||Prof Yutaka Takahashi & Prof Lakshminarayanan Samavedham||Open Courtyard
Oral Presentation (10 min presentation, 8 min discussion, 2 min changeover)
Student Paper Presentation – paper 1
[toggle title=’Impact of farmers’ illegal behavior and intervention on the spread of African swine fever in Madagascar (Presented by: Tiana Randrianantoandro)’]
Authors: Tiana Randrianantoandro, Hiroichi Kono, Satoko Kubota
Animal disease has impact on farmers’ livelihood especially in developing countries. To control disease spread, compensating farmer is a powerful incentive to for farmers to report infection cases. This study aimed to determine the effect of farmers’ behavior with compensation as intervention. System dynamic modeling was used to simulate the spread of ASF with two scenarios, with and without compensation. The modeling shows that the number of infected pigs decreased when compensation is given. Compensating farmers is important when illegal behavior and social factors are involved in the spread of ASF.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 2
[toggle title=’Understanding Income Inequality in Singapore from Systems Dynamics Perspective (Presented by: Gregory Tham)’]
Authors: Kah Jun Gregory Tham, Naviyn Balakrishnan
The problem of income inequality is a growing issue in Singapore, one that has been seriously investigated by different scholars and policymakers. In a forum, Singapore’s Emeritus Senior Minister pointed out that there is an urgent need to redistribute wealth as Singapore was increasingly becoming a much divided society owing to a wide disparity in income. Increasingly, the Government is recognizing the issue of income inequality and taking steps to mitigate the situation. This is so because income inequality is not only an economic issue but also a social issue which could potentially damage the social fabric of Singapore. This research paper analyzes the issue of income inequality in Singapore from Systems Dynamics perspective with the following objectives: 1) To identify the factors that contribute to the problem of income inequality in Singapore via an extensive literature review. 2) To model the interconnections and inter-dependencies between the factors that impact income inequality using appropriate system dynamics modeling tools. 3) To analyse and discuss the possibilities of what can be done to mitigate the situation.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 3
Time: 1.40- 2:00pm
[toggle title=’Keeping Voluntourism in Check (Presented by: Chia Zhe Min)’]
Author: Chia Zhe Min
This project aims to examine the outcomes and effects of international short-term volunteer-work, ranging from the commercial one provided by tour agencies, to mission trips conducted by non-governmental organizations (NGO), and OCIPs spearheaded by groups of students. In particular, it explores how the hype and increased popularity of voluntourism projects is harmful to third-world communities.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 4
[toggle title=’Water Scarcity in Beijing (Presented by: Feng Ye)’]
Authors: Jingwen Song, Zelin Zhang, Feng Ye, Longxiang Li, Peng Danni
Beijing has been facing the problem of water scarcity in recent years due to growing water demand and limited local water resources. In order to mitigate the problem, Chinese government has initiated the South-to-North Water Diversion Project to transfer water from the reservoirs in southern China to Beijing. Although the Water Diversion Project managed to boost the water storage in Beijing at the present time, its inherent side effects cast doubts in its long-term sustainability. The simulation of the current situation using iThink model predicts the water storage in Beijing will decline rapidly 10 years after the commencement of the Water Diversion Project. Based on the sensitivity analysis, this study proposes three policies to tackle the problem, namely privatisation of water recycling factory, improvement on drainage system and restriction on water flow rate at household water fittings. With successful implementation of these policies, the water supply in Beijing can be maintained at a sustainable level to meet the future demand.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 5
[toggle title=’Singapore Public Housing Dynamics: Exploring Plausible Future of Public Housing Market (Presented by: Kian Ming Phua)’]
Authors: Kian Ming Phua, Naviyn Balakrishnan
Housing Development Board (HDB) flats have become an iconic feature of Singapore’s landscape. Singapore’s government has played a significant role in ensuring that all segments of society are not left out and are empowered to realise their aspirations. One major aspiration of all Singaporeans would be that of home ownership. Ensuring the affordability in homeownership is thus a key policy objective of the Singapore government since her days of inception following independence. This paper mainly focuses on aspects of the property market which are affecting the transaction price of HDB flats in the new HDB flats segment under the Build-To-Order scheme, from system dynamics perspective, which is accomplished via two objectives: (i) evaluating the trend of the recent surge in property prices in Singapore’s property market; (ii) exploring plausible outcomes to the prices of new HDB flats in the future with the continued implementation/ termination/ modification of the ‘cooling’ measures.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 6
[toggle title=’Biodiesel Blend Mandate Policy Impact on Malaysia Biodiesel Industry: A System Dynamics Approach (Presented by: M Zabid M Faeid)’]
Authors: M Zabid M Faeid, Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin, Shri-Dewi Applanaidu
Biodiesel, one type of biofuel, has been developed by various country in the world to reduce the dependability on crude oil. In Malaysia, new blend mandates has been announced recently to continue government effort in promoting growth in biodiesel industry, amid low global crude oil prices. We develop a system dynamics model to study the impact of various biodiesel policies including increasing biodiesel blend mandate and expanding its usage to other sector towards the growth and direction of the industry. Findings from the analysis show that while it requires government to bear the cost of keeping biodiesel price competitive, increasing mandate and expanding its usage contribute to the revenue in palm oil sector, increasing the quality of livelihood of smallholder and relatively reduce the carbon dioxide emission as compared to petrol diesel. The findings are important to prove the rationale of government commitment in upholding biodiesel industry despite unfavorable economic condition.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 7
[toggle title=’Commercial Finning of Hammerhead Sharks (Presented by: Dion Ng Wei Jie)’]
Authors: Dion Ng Wei Jie, Magdalene Yoap, Yuan Jiahui, Deng Jim Yep, Nicholas Fong
The purpose of this report is to study the effects of commercial shark finning on the rapid decline in population of hammerhead sharks. This report models the population of hammerhead sharks without the introduction of shark conservation policies, to better illustrate the effects of commercial shark finning on the population as well as identify the key factors that contribute to decline in the shark population. Subsequently, this report looks into two main policies that have been employed to manage commercial finning activities, namely restrictions on commercial finning and shark conservation campaigns. This report analyses the effectiveness of these policies through incorporating them into the aforementioned model. Sensitivity analysis of the different components of these policies is done to understand the impacts of each factor on the outcomes of the policies. With these findings, this report proposes the most ideal measures to prevent the extinction of hammerhead sharks.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 8
[toggle title=’Using System Dynamics to Analyze Project Finance and Risks: A Case Study of A Toll Road Project (Presented by: Lukas Sihombing)’]
Author: Lukas Sihombing
In Project Finance (PF), particularly in a build, operate, and transfer (BOT) scheme, equity investors are concerned about the adequacy of their returns. In contrast, the lenders are focused on the timeliness of the project debt service payments. Therefore, PF and risk modeling plays an important role to ensure that the project is a prerequisite to manage its structure. However, a future infrastructure project will become more complicated. Not only will the competition force the bidders to become increasingly innovative in their financing modeling, but also the limitations of stakeholders to understand others when evaluating a project will become more prevalent. This paper aims to propose a new technique to assist the stakeholders to better weigh the pros and cons of various options, to integrate a strategic view of various options which have multiple risks in the short term and long term, including the reactions of all affected parties, and reactions to those reactions. The method uses a System Dynamics (SD) approach. It builds confidence in the model and its policy implications. The result of this paper is PF and risk modeling should use an SD approach in toll road projects.
Student Paper Presentation – paper 9
[toggle title=’Dynamics of Zika Transmission in Singapore (Presented by: Ying Tze Siow)’]
Authors: Ying Tze Siow, Naviyn Balakrishnan
Ministry of Health has reported a localised spread of Zika virus infection in Singapore on 28 August 2016. Having known about the intensity of Zika infections in other parts of the world, it is important to understand and model the dynamics of Zika infection in Singapore from System dynamics perspective, as it not only helps to qualitatively and quantitatively understand the interconnections and inter-dependencies between various actors that would influence Zika infection; but, also offers potential to use these models as test beds for testing various public health policies, before actually implementing them on ground. Hence, the objective of this paper to model the dynamics of Zika infection transmission in Singapore, primarily via mosquito vectors using the tools of Systems Dynamics. There are two major sectors in the proposed model, namely mosquitoes sector and human sector. The dynamics of disease spread within and between these sectors are modelled following the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered model structure.
Venue: Open Courtyard (level 1)
[toggle title=’1000: Leverage of Learning Alignment in Performance Audit Development’]
Authors: Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, Muhammad Anwar
The Audit Board of the Republic of Indonesia enhance its role through the Performance Audit. In the process of performance audit development, organisational learning, individual learning, and interaction with the auditee occurred. Research uses system dynamics modelling and learning linkage concept. The results showed that learning begins from the individual observations, and it is not just limited to the observation of environment response but also to the interaction among individuals and organisation. Increased individual learning is leverage in the learning alignment system of performance audit development. To enhance the outcome of training in performance audit, training should involve mentoring, coaching and field audit practices.
[toggle title=’1047: Knowledge creation model of intelligence agency in POLRI’]
Authors: Andreo Wahyudi Atmoko, Siti Masitah Handayani
Intelligence Agency of POLRI (Polisi Republik Indonesia or Indonesian National Police) deals with the problem of organization development in order to be smart organization. The issue boils down to how the development of this organization manages knowledge that can create useful information in presenting quality and reliable intelligence product. This intelligence organizational background is underlying the matter of how the dynamic knowledge creation happen in the Intelligence Agency.
[toggle title=’1050: Systems thinking analysis on the delays in civil aircraft development projects’]
Authors: Kan Nagaoka, Shoya Une, Takahiro Hatamoto, Masaki Okai, Yusuke Nakasada, Nobuaki Minato
Project delays are inevitable issues for today’s commercial aircraft developments. News articles deal with various delays discussing the impacts on corporate performances. However, causalities among the delay events are not systematically analyzed. The purpose of the paper is to analyze common delay mechanism in commercial aircraft development projects using system thinking approach. Three different cases of Boeing 787 (B787), Airbus 380 (A380) and Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) are analyzed. Fish-bone Diagram is used to identify multiple causes within a certain delay event and the causality is analyzed using Causal Loop Diagram. The results show that the indirect causality among the delay events makes it more difficult to manage the development project on schedule. Once a certain technical problem happened to an aircraft design, it directly causes a delay to solve it, and other social issues arise secondary such as workers strikes and insiders trading that bring about further delays.
[toggle title=’1082: Increasing Uptake of Transitional Care in Singapore’]
Authors: Bruce Lim, Yu Hua Chiu, Charmaine Lee, Rachel Peh, Safia Tyebally, John Ansah
In Singapore, there has been a steady increase in the number of hospitalisations. Consequently, some patients are readmitted, and their quality of life is compromised. In light of these trends, transitional care has been proven to be a promising approach to reducing hospitalisations and readmissions. There are three primary objectives of transitional care: to provide a continuum of care for patients and ensure smooth transitions between acute and community settings; to optimise patients’ outcomes through individualized care plans; and to minimize hospital utilization through timely discharge and reducing unnecessary emergency department visits. In order to maintain Singapore’s world class health system, it is vital to include transitional care as part of the healthcare system and expand its usage nationwide. Thus, it would be beneficial to examine how the uptake of transitional care in Singapore can be increased. In this paper, we investigate the effects of the implementation of policies to: 1) increase awareness of transitional care, and to 2) reduce the cost of transitional care through subsidies on its utilisation patterns. It was found that increasing awareness or subsidies of transitional care increase uptake in seniors and adults, thus reducing readmissions.
[toggle title=’1083: Palliative Care for Breast Cancer in Singapore’]
Authors: Wen Qi Tan, Wei Hoe, Hui Jun Ling, Nathalia Lourdesamy, Janel Ong, John Ansah
Palliative care has developed rapidly around the world over the last fifty years to meet the complex and multiple needs of patients with progressive and advanced illnesses. It is now recognised as a speciality in many countries. In the Singaporean context, a pressing issue that our government has been actively targeting is our ageing population. This has led to an increase in the number of patients that have developed terminal illnesses, thus increasing the need for palliative care. It is essential to structure the health care system to deliver such care efficiently to an increasing number of patients facing progressive illness and disability towards the end-of-life. The purpose of this paper is to understand the palliative care landscape for breast cancer in Singapore. It highlights the policies that have already been put in place to meet the current demand of palliative care. It examines how to better coordinate Singapore’s healthcare system to meet the anticipated demand for palliative care, given Singapore’s ageing population. This paper investigates two potential policies—increasing beds or increasing palliative care workforce—that can be implemented in the future to increase the supply of palliative care to cater to the increase in demand.
[toggle title=’1085: Understanding the Dynamics of Colorectal Cancer in Singapore’]
Authors: Amos Heng, Xin Xuan Ang, Valerie Chang, Gregory Tham, Xiao Ran Peng, Sneha Prabakar, John Ansah
The incidence of colorectal cancer in Singapore has plateaued in recent years. However, colorectal cancer has the second highest cancer mortality rate among males and third highest cancer mortality rate among females at in Singapore. Further, with population ageing, a larger number of individuals are expected to be at high risk of developing colorectal cancer due to increased prevalence with age. Through this project, we aim to understand how best to decrease the number of colorectal cancer cases through primary intervention methods; and increase the screening uptake through secondary intervention methods through our proposed policies. We found that policies to introduce campaigns for a healthier lifestyle, government subsidies, and promote awareness for screening were effective in decreasing the number of colorectal cancer cases and to increase screening uptake. In light of cost concerns, we propose a combination of promoting a healthy diet and smoke-free lifestyle as well as the awareness campaigns on screening. In doing so, it will reduce the high initial investment that the government have to fork out and reduce the policy resistance within the government. Nevertheless, the impact of these policies depends on how receptive Singaporeans are towards changing their lifestyles and go for regular screenings.
[toggle title=’1094: The Road to a Sustainable Healthcare System’]
Authors: Ewe Zi Yi, Zhiren Chor, Kenneth Tay, Abhi Parikh, Jun Boh
Despite being heralded as one of the best healthcare systems in the world, Singapore’s healthcare system is currently facing the issue of an acute shortage of beds in its hospital. Research has shown that as recent as 2014, many hospitals have been experiencing average weekly occupancy of well over 90%, with real occupancy exceeding 100% on several days. Furthermore, it has been predicted that the issue might worsen soon due to Singapore’s rapid aging population. In this study, a model is built to demonstrate the severity of the aforementioned bed crunch problem. By defining the bed-occupancy-rate (BOR) as the ratio of the number of occupied beds to the total number of beds available, we aim to introduce policies to attain a lower and more sustainable BOR. It is found that the solution to the bed crunch is not to flog the workhorses of the tertiary healthcare sector even harder. Instead, the ‘fundamental solution’ lies in capitalizing on the primary healthcare sector’s focus on disease prevention and treatment. This approach makes healthcare management more sustainable for Singapore in the long run by reducing the occurrence of preventable diseases, which we believe would ease the burden on hospital beds.
[toggle title=’1096: Power Dynamics in A Streetcar Named Desire’]
Author: Stephanie Lauw
My paper draws connections between system dynamics models and Tennessee Williams’ A Streetcar Named Desire. The concern of power change and power struggle is a key idea which runs throughout the play. By modelling the structures of Blanche’s power and charting her change in power level in each scene, the factors that affect the amount of power she holds are elucidated more clearly. This situates the play’s society as a system for study and consideration. I will pay added attention to the relationship between Blanche and the antagonist, Stanley, thereafter, paralleling the power dynamics to that of the non-fiction reality of the 2003 Iraq War. All in all, my paper puts forth the exploration of reading literature through the lens of a systems thinker, positing an uncommon analysis to A Streetcar Named Desire.
[toggle title=’1099: Modelling the Dynamics of HIV/AIDS Population in Singapore’]
Authors: Choong Hwee NG, Naviyn Balakrishnan
This paper aims to model and improve the HIV/AIDS management in Singapore. Though a lot has already been done for the HIV/AIDS patients in Singapore by both government and non-government organisations, more can be done to assist the patients suffering from HIV/AIDS. This project focuses on using Systems Thinking and Systems Dynamics to alleviate the problem by implementing solutions which will benefit HIV/AIDS patients. The main policies to be considered include Prevention, Early Detection and Enabling a Normal Lifestyle. The prevention policy would act as an upstream policy to reduce the number of new HIV/AIDS infections while detection and enabling policy would seek to allow as many patients to go through proper screening and treatment. Each policy has a different target group. The prevention policy targets the healthy population while the detection and enabling policy targets the undiscovered infected population and discovered infected population respectively. A model was developed to replicate and project the HIV/AIDS situation in Singapore. Upon the validation of the model, the policies were implemented individually to project the effectiveness of each policy. It was concluded that a simultaneous implementation of all three policies would be the most effective to cater to all the different stakeholders.